Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2024
A Book Recommendation…
Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2024 by Allan J. Lichtman
As the General Presidential 2024 election is approaching, a lot of you might wonder: “Who will be the next U.S. President?” We are wondering, too!
It's a great reason to be on the lookout for interesting books and articles on the topic of voting rights and elections. This time, we came across a fascinating, classic book on the predicting mythology of presidential elections.
Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House, 2024 Edition, by Allan J. Lichtman, Lanham, Maryland: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2024, is the book we recommend. Dr. Lichtman has received his Ph.D. from Harvard University and is a Distinguished Professor at the American University in Washington, D.C. He has developed a methodology to predict the outcome of the U.S. presidential elections. It is a fascinating read.
Presidential Elections are not about the Candidates but the Previous Four Years.
According to Allan Lichtman’s argument, presidential elections are not about the polls or candidates, leadership or personalities, campaigns or speeches. It is about the performance of the four previous years of the incumbent administration. Lichtman states:
“Nothing either party has said or done during the fall campaign has ever changed its poll prospects. Debates, television appearances, fund-raising, advertising, news coverage, and campaign strategies - the usual grist of the punditry mills - count for virtually nothing on Election Day. The only issues that matter are the ones for which the results are already in.”
The equation for Lichtman is simple. It concerns the strength and performance of the incumbent administration, as measured by thirteen “keys” to the White House. Let’s examine each key individually.
13 Keys to the White House
The Keys to the White House is “a diagnostic prediction system developed through the application of mathematical procedures to the study of presidential elections since 1860.”
According to Lichtman, the “keys” to the White House are a clear indicator of the national political environment that ultimately determines the outcome of the popular voting.
“Only three times since 1860, however, has the electoral college not ratified the popular vote. These include the ‘stolen’ election of 1876, when Democrat Samuel J. Tilden outpolled Republican Rutherford B. Hayes 51 to 48 percent but lost a disputed contest for the electoral vote, the election of 1888 when electoral college votes overrode President Grover Cleveland’s narrow popular-vote margin over Benjamin Harrison, and the 2000 election described above.”
Thirteen keys are divided into three types: four political keys, seven performance keys, and two charisma keys. The keys are in the form of a statement that can be true or false. Based on the number of false statements, the incumbent party will likely win or lose.
The magic number for Lichtman is five. In other words, the incumbent party wins only when five or fewer statements are false. If, on the other hand, six or more statements are false, the incumbent party loses.
Political Keys
Political keys are focused on the strength and unity of the incumbent party.
Key 1: Incumbent-party mandate
The incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives after the most recent midterm elections than after the previous midterm elections. In other words, if you compare the number of seats won by the incumbent party in the two most recent midterm elections, did the party gain or lose seats in the U.S. House of Representatives?
Key 2: Nomination Contest
There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
Key 3: Incumbency
The incumbent party candidate is the sitting President.
Performance Keys
Performance keys measure the party’s perceived achievements and failures across the board. There are seven performance keys of the incumbent party.
Key 4: Third Party
There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
Key 5: Short-term Economy
The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Key 6: Long-term Economy
Real annual per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the two previous terms. In other words, has an inflation-adjusted yearly economic growth per person increased or decreased during the last two terms?
Key 7: Policy Change
The incumbent administration affects important changes in national policy.
Key 8: Social Unrest
There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
Key 9: Scandal
The incumbent administration is untainted by a major scandal.
Key 10: Foreign or Military Failure
The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Key 11: Foreign or Military Success
The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Charisma Keys
Charisma keys are only vital if a candidate is unusually compelling or heroic.
Key 12: Incumbent charisma
The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Key 12: Challenger charisma
The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
To summarize, the thirteen keys we’ve reviewed are conditions that favor the election of the incumbent party. The incumbent party wins only when five or fewer statements are false. If, on the other hand, six or more statements are false, the incumbent party loses. You can quickly analyze the conditions and draw conclusions. Do you want to try it?