U.S. Presidential Elections Explained: What Are Swing States, and (Why) Do They Matter?

Have you heard about "swing states" and wondered what they are? What’s the buzz about the swing states anyway? And why is everyone talking about them? Do they even matter in the elections, especially during the presidential general elections?

We did wonder, too! And we’ve got all the answers you need to understand the sometimes confusing system of selecting a U.S. President. Read on…

What is a “Swing State”?

A “swing state” - also referred to as a “battleground state,” “toss-up state,” or “purple state” -  is a state that can be potentially won by (or “swing” to) either the Democratic or Republican presidential candidate, depending on the election. Swing states are usually won by a small margin of votes and could "swing" to a different party than in the previous election.  

A “swing state” is a U.S.-specific phenomenon based on how the U.S. president is elected, namely the Electoral College system. To learn more about the Electoral College, check out our blog entitled Electoral College Explained: How is the U.S. President Elected?

According to the U.S. Constitution, every state has a specific number of electoral votes based on the number of representatives to which every state is entitled in the U.S. Congress. The allocation of electoral votes is based on the state’s population.

Number of Electoral Votes by State

Every ten years, the electoral votes are redistributed according to the Census. For the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections, the 2020 Census has determined how many electoral votes each state is entitled to. Here's how many electoral votes each state has. Check out yours:

• Alabama: 9 votes
• Alaska: 3 votes
• Arizona: 11 votes
• Arkansas: 6 votes
• California: 54 votes
• Colorado: 10 votes
• Connecticut: 7 votes
• Delaware: 3 votes
• District of Columbia: 3 votes
• Florida: 30 votes
• Georgia: 16 votes
• Hawaii: 4 votes
• Idaho: 4 votes
• Illinois: 19 votes
• Indiana: 11 votes
• Iowa: 6 votes
• Kansas: 6 votes
• Kentucky: 8 votes
• Lousiana: 8 votes
• Maine: 4 votes
• Maryland: 10 votes
• Massachusetts: 11 votes
• Michigan: 15 votes
• Minnesota: 10 votes
• Mississippi: 6 votes
• Missouri: 10 votes
• Montana: 4 votes
• Nebraska: 5 votes
• Nevada: 6 votes
• New Hampshire: 4 votes
• New Jersey: 14 votes
• New Mexico: 5 votes
• New York: 28 votes
• North Carolina: 16 votes
• North Dakota: 3 votes
• Ohio: 17 votes
• Oklahoma: 7 votes
• Oregon: 8 votes
• Pennsylvania: 19 votes
• Rhode Island: 4 votes
• South Carolina: 9 votes
• South Dakota: 3 votes
• Tennessee: 11 votes
• Texas: 40 votes
• Utah: 6 votes
• Vermont: 3 votes
• Virginia: 13 votes
• Washington: 12 votes
• West Virginia: 4 votes
• Wisconsin: 10 votes
• Wyoming: 3 votes

The most populous states are entitled to large numbers of electoral votes. Namely, California has 54 votes, Texas has 40 votes, Florida has 30 votes, and New York has 28 votes. Less populated states, like Alaska, Delaware, the District of Columbia, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming, all have three votes, the minimum number of votes a state can have. The rest of the states have between 4 and 19 votes. In short, more populous states have more electors.

However, the size and population of a state have no bearing on whether it is considered a swing state. If the race is close and the state is balancing on a razor thin margin of votes that could go one way or another, that becomes a more critical factor.

Historically, some states have elected only a Republican or only a Democratic candidate; these states are often referred to as “safe” states. Depending on their political leaning, these states are sometimes referred to as “red” (Republican) or “blue” (Democratic) states.

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Why Do Swing States Matter?

To win a presidential election, a candidate must win at least 270 out of 538 electoral votes.

• In all states, except Maine and Nebraska which they use the proportional system to allocate the electoral votes, the principle “winner-take-all” rule determines which candidate gets all of the state’s electoral votes.
• If presidential candidate A gets more votes - even if it is 1(one) more vote (!) - than candidate B, candidate A “wins the state,” meaning candidate A gets all electoral votes of that state.
• The exceptions, as mentioned, are Maine and Nebraska. They allocate their electoral votes based on the number of votes received for each candidate. On a side note, while rare, Maine and Nebraska had a split vote twice; Maine - in 2016 and 2020, and Nebraska in 2008 and 2020.

You can banish the idea that your vote won't count! It will be counted and every vote will matter!

 

The Trend is Swinging Toward Swing States

There has been a trend toward swing states and close races in recent years. According to USA Facts, “30 states have voted for the candidate of the opposite party from the previous election at least once [since 1992]. And 26 states were won by less than three points in any presidential election since 1992.”

• In the 2020 presidential election, swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were instrumental in deciding the election outcome.
• The winning vote margin between the candidates in these seven states was less than 3%. 
• In 2024, the same states are expected to play an important role in deciding the election outcome.

Historically, as the map demonstrates, more than seven states have been swing states.

What Should I Do?

As you can see, the issue of the swing states is very important. Even if your state wasn't a swing state in 2020, it might become a swing state in 2024.

If you’re not registered to vote, you should register today! Create your profile and stay on top of things. If your family and friends haven’t registered to vote, ensure they do.

Don’t forget that every vote counts, and in swing states, every vote makes a difference not only at the state level but also at the national level.